Romney convinced by polls he would win election

It may take election experts years to unravel the mystery of why Mitt Romney was convinced he had won the 2012 presidential election, as a new report shows some skewed internal poll numbers, and explains Romney?s two trips to Pennsylvania.

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Image of Romney's "transition" website.

But at the same time, the article from The New Republic?s Noam Scheiber shows inconsistencies with reports from November 5 and November 6 about the numbers that might have convinced Romney and his team that he had a good chance of beating President Barack Obama in Ohio.

Obama?s resounding win is starting to take on more of a resemblance to Harry Truman?s ?upset? in 1948, with Romney playing the role of Thomas Dewey.

Obama wound up with 332 electoral votes, taking every swing state except North Carolina. Somehow, the Romney campaign was seemingly convinced that he would win one of the final three swing states, or make a strong showing in Pennsylvania.

In the article, Scheiber goes over Romney?s internal polling numbers from six swing states with Neil Newhouse, the Republican pollster who did the surveys on the weekend before the election. Scheiber obtained the numbers from a source and Newhouse agreed to talk about the six states.

The conclusion is that Romney, based on his internal polls, thought he had at least 267 out of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, and the election would be decided in four states: Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada

The campaign was also convinced it had momentum in the overall election as voters headed to the polls.

The Romney campaign also believed Pennsylvania was a closer race that Wisconsin, which is why Romney appeared twice in the Keystone State just before the election.

There?s little discussion in The New Republic story about Nevada, so you can scratch Wisconsin and Nevada from the swing state list, which leaves Ohio and Pennsylvania as the states where the Romney campaign thought it could win the presidential election.

The New Republic provides Romney?s internal polling numbers for Pennsylvania, which showed Obama with a three-point lead.

So it seems like Ohio was the focal point of the campaign. The New Republic didn?t obtain detailed Ohio internal polling numbers, but it reported that Newhouse said that Romney trailed in their internal polling by just two points in Ohio on the weekend before the election.

There was a widely circulated report about the Ohio internal polling from the Daily Mail on November 5, Election Eve, that said Newhouse had Romney up by one point in Ohio and the Romney team thought the races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were even.

The Romney team denied the Daily Mail report on November 6, which was Election Day.

But the Daily Mail report also had the Romney team forecasting a three-point lead in New Hampshire, which matches the number supplied to The New Republic.

The difference could be explained by the fact that the New Republic numbers are an average of the Saturday and Sunday polling numbers, and the Daily Mail numbers could be from just Sunday, which could have Romney gaining several points in each swing state.

Moving forward to Election Night, CNN reporter Peter Hamby dropped a bombshell in the early evening, revealing that Romney?s internal polling showed Obama with a five-point lead in Ohio on Sunday.

Then blogger Taegan Goddard published internal GOP exit polls that showed Romney trailing Obama by four points in Ohio and that Romney only had exit poll leads in two swing states.

In the end, Obama won Ohio by 1.9 percent, and we have three different Romney internal polling numbers for Ohio. The Daily Mail report had Romney up by one point; the New Republic report had Obama up by two points; and the CNN report had Obama up by five points.

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The six internal polls published by The New Republic show a difference of between 3 and 7 percent from the actual election results, and all the polls overestimated Romney?s performance.

There seems to be less of a difference of opinion about why the polls underestimate the eventual outcome.

An analysis published by Slate on November 9 is similar to the analysis from The New Republic: the Romney team over-counted Republicans in their polling and underestimated Obama voter turnout.

?When anyone raised the idea that public polls were showing a close race, the campaign?s pollster said the poll modeling was flawed and everyone moved on. Internally, the campaign?s own polling?tweaked to represent their view of the electorate, with fewer Democrats?showed a steady uptick for Romney since the first debate. Even on the morning of the election, Romney?s senior advisers weren?t close to hedging. They said he was going to win ?decisively,?? said Slate?s John Dickerson.

There also seems to be little doubt that Romney thought, like Thomas Dewey, that he would win the election.

He didn?t have a concession speech prepared, and Romney paid for an eight-minute fireworks display over Boston?s harbor.

The permit for the fireworks expired at 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, November 7.

The Romney team also accidentally published a victory ?transition? website.

Scott Bomboy is the editor-in-chief of Constitution Daily.

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/romney-internal-polls-mystery-deepens-republic-report-143811101.html

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tales of me and the husband: Some thoughts on step parenting.

This is one of those posts that I have in draft form for weeks. ?I go back to it, edit it, file it away again. ?Publish it? ?Maybe. ?Skip it? ?Quite possibly. ?It's tricky. ?Talking about parenting from a step mom perspective. ?It's something I do with my sisters, with Steve, with my Mom and closest friends. ?Occasionally with a counselor too (thanks be to the counselors!).??People who will both listen to me and give me the feedback that I want, and don't want, to hear. ?People who will listen with a keen ear, be empathetic, non-judgmental, but also share the here-is-what-you-need-to-change bits. ?But it's something I have a hard time doing here. ?As much as I have a hard time doing it, it's hard not to also.

There are times where I come to this space wanting so badly to talk about it, to maybe reach someone going through a similar situation, or maybe someone who has advice worth sharing, or really just simply talk, share. ?I was inspired by Jane's post here when she said, towards the bottom, there's really not much out there, in the blog-community, that talks about parenting teenagers. ?And, hello, that is by far the hardest stage of parenting. ?And, I daresay, step parenting too. ?The place where we need the most, we lack the most. ?So, I'm going to attempt to talk about it, and not let this one fall back into the drafts folder yet again. ?It's going to ramble on, perhaps conclusion-less, journal entry style. ?Forgive me!

Parker's less than a year away from where Lindsey was when Shannon got sick. ?He's one year away from where Lindsey was when she died. ?I have always been able to rattle off the age of the kids pretty quickly. ?Their current ages, and the ages they were when she passed away. ?It's an integral part of the story, and strangers who hear the story inevitably ask, "How old were they??"

Two. ?Lindsey was two. ?I've always known it but been, I don't know, detached from it? ?Or not quite as aware of a two-year old as I am now. ?What they're like, how often they cry or laugh, need their diaper changed, need their Mom. ?Of course, Parker's not two yet. ?But, I can imagine, a little bit, what he'll be like this July. ?How little he'll still be (to me, anyway), how often he'll need to be fed, picked up, kissed, how he may still want me to rock him to sleep at naptime, how I'll know, better than Steve, how to scramble an egg for him just right, or what his favorite foods are. ?The idea of me not being around? ?Well, it's unthinkable.

Just this morning, Steve and I were sitting eating hash browns and eggs and, like it had just occurred to me, I said, "He's not that far from where Lindsey was when Shannon died." ?Steve said, "I think of it nearly every time I change his diaper."

I have been told that Shannon was utterly content and peaceful, right through her last days. ?I have to attribute this to peace to none other than God himself, because I don't know how someone can be that way knowing that there is a huge possibility they'll be leaving behind what they hold most dear. ?Steve has said it was remarkable. ?I imagine that it was.

Step parenting is hard. ?Who am I kidding, parenting is hard. ?I put on a good front here, but it's really hard. ?Not all the time, but a lot of it. ?There is so much I don't talk about. ?And, lest your favorite blogger is telling you otherwise, there is so much all bloggers don't talk about. ?You're not seeing most of the picture. ?A blog is a moment, a fleeting moment, the things we wanted to remember. ?There are times, a lot, when I throw my hands up in the air and just pray for wisdom. ?Cause I don't know many people who really know how to parent their teenager, let alone step parent them.

It's hard to be only ten years older than one of your step kids and be some sort of authority in his life. ?It's harder when he really have an issue with authority in general. ?When, even the mere suggestion that he clean up after himself is met with a who-do-you-think-you-are look. ?It's hard to feel like you get no respect. ?It's hard to wonder if, at times, you deserve it. ?It's hard to feel like too much is expected of you, like your best is not good enough. ?It's hard when you know that sometimes your best isn't that good.? It's hard to know that, gosh, if he'd just let down his guard you could seriously be friends. ?(Friends like we used to be.) ?It's hard knowing that, at this point, he's not that receptive to love. ?From me, from Steve. ?It's hard when you feel like you're on an opposing team but really, you're rooting for him. ?It's hard to wonder if these issues--the above and more--are specific to me, to a step parent/step child relationship, or if Shannon would be going through the same things. ?I suspect, a lot of the times, it's the latter. ?It's hard, it's just hard.

Because he's not interested in being in pictures or smiling for them, you don't see a lot of him here. ?He's smart, really smart, and is doing well in school. ?He's also working most weekends so when you don't see him showing up here or on Instagram, it's probably because he's actually not with us or because he avoids the camera. ?There are too many battles to fight, I let that one go. ?He is motivated and inquisitive and hard working. ?And, when he has his guard down, he can be really funny. ?There are so many positives. ?But, yes, parenting him is hard right now (and most of it, Steve handles). ?So, there's my attempt to put into words some of the thoughts I have. ?To let you know that he's not getting cropped out of pictures (you didn't think so, now did you?) and that, well, he's a tough one at the moment.

In some ways, I wish we could skip the teen years.

I began this post with Shannon. ?I'm afraid it's too easy, eight years later, to forget the loss they suffered. ?To remind yourself of their past, their pain... I don't do it enough. ?It's something that undoubtedly marked them, particularly the two older boys, forever. ?I cannot begin to fathom the ways. ?And, not that they should be off the hook, or handled with kid-gloves because they lost their mother, but it is something to remember.

Thanks for listening.

Source: http://itsahuntlife.blogspot.com/2012/11/some-thoughts-on-step-parenting.html

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Vino Alan, Paige Thomas 'Surprised' By 'X Factor' Elimination

'I feel amazing, I'm so happy with everything I've done on the show,' says eighth place finisher Thomas after being sent home.
By Gil Kaufman, with additional reporting by Chris Kim

Vino Alan with Khloe Kardashian and L.A. Reid on "X Factor"
Photo: FOX

Source: http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1698180/vino-alan-paige-thomas-x-factor.jhtml

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Lensbaby Spark

By Jim Fisher

The Lensbaby Spark ($80 direct) is a manual focus lens for Canon and Nikon SLR cameras that allows you to tilt its neck, which is a flexible bellows, in order to change the angle at which light hits your camera's image sensor. This allows you to focus on one spot and blur the area around it, creating an interesting effect that a standard camera lens can't reproduce.

The Spark is the least expensive Lensbaby available?the next model up, the Muse, is $150, and the more advanced Composer is $200. As such, its build quality is not as spectacular. Its lens mount is plastic and you'll want to be careful to mount and unmount the lens via its base, as you can twist the front section of the lens if you twist it with any amount of force. The included optic has a 50mm focal length and a fixed f/5.6 aperture, which should make it easier to get a decent amount of the image in focus, but limits your options for creating a really shallow depth of field.

The included lens is a multi-coated glass doublet design, similar to the $90 Double Glass Optic that Lensbaby sells, but that lens has a much faster maximum f/2 aperture. You can remove the included lens and use any Lensbaby Optic Swap module, but the company doesn't recommend using the Sweet 35, Fisheye, or Edge 80 lenses as they are a bit too heavy for the Spark to properly support?you'll want to move up to a Muse or Composer if you want to use one of these higher-end lenses. It is also compatible with all of Lensbaby's 37mm threaded accessory filters, which include macro, wide-angle, and telephoto converters.

The images you get from the Spark are sharp in one spot, with the rest of the image giving way to blur. Portrait photographers can really make their subjects pop out from the background using this technique, and it's also useful for drawing attention to a specific object or texture in a photo. If you've long been curious about the Lensbaby system, but hesitant to pay the high cost of entry, the Spark is a great product with which to start. If you find yourself using it regularly you can swap the optic out for one that better suits your vision?the Double Glass Optic will give you a similar look, but a shallower depth of field, and there are also Pinhole, Single Glass, Soft Focus, and Plastic lenses available?and if you don't like it, your out of pocket costs aren't that extreme.

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ziffdavis/pcmag/~3/rALz7mdDI-0/0,2817,2412585,00.asp

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Consumers develop complex relationships with celebrities to ...

Consumers look to celebrities such as Dave Grohl of the Foo Fighters to help them construct identity, which influences purchasing decisions. Credit: Scott Flanagin, University of Arkansas

(Phys.org)?Marketers and advertisers know celebrities influence consumers' purchasing decisions, but a new study by a marketing researcher at the University of Arkansas and her colleague in the United Kingdom suggests that consumers take an active role in using celebrities to help them build their own identities and self-images, rather than merely passively receiving meanings and messages from celebrities and incorporating them into their lives.

"Our primary interest is what consumers do with celebrity and the roles celebrity interactions play in consumer identity construction," said Hayley Cocker, visiting professor in the Sam M. Walton College of Business. "Of course, we're talking about the cultural messages and meanings provided by celebrities, not literal relationships. Rather than a passive, top-down model in which celebrities use their marketing power to pass on cultural meanings to consumers, we found that consumers actually flit between different and often fragmented identities passed along to them by celebrities."

To gain a better understanding of the dynamic between consumers and celebrities, Cocker and Emma Banister, lecturer at Manchester Business School in the United Kingdom, interviewed 11 young adults ? six women and five men, all British and between the ages of 18 and 24. Cocker and Banister asked questions about the influence of celebrities in the subjects' efforts to build their identities. To demonstrate the relevance of celebrities in the everyday lives of ordinary young-adult consumers, the researchers chose subjects who experience a range of feelings toward celebrities.

The researchers found that rather than a single message passed down from celebrity to passive consumer, a range of consumer-celebrity relationships conspires to allow consumers to form a personal identity that matches who they want to be. In effect, the various meanings and messages displayed by celebrities help consumers develop a portfolio of relationships that allow them to function as creators of meaning for themselves. Cocker describes the complex combination of these different and sometimes fragmented relationships as "celebrityscapes" or "celebrity bricolages," within which the consumer has the freedom and opportunity to engage or not or to manipulate at will.

Cocker uses the example of Zara, one of the interviewees, to illustrate this phenomenon. Zara labeled different aspects of herself as "goofball," "wanting to study," "positive" and "old-fashioned," and she relied upon different celebrities ? singer and X-Factor judge Nicole Scherzinger (goofball); Emma Watson, "Hermione" in the Harry Potter films (wanting to study); Victoria's Secret model Miranda Kerr (positive self); and Kate Middleton, Duchess of Cambridge (old-fashioned) ? to execute and move between these various identities.??

From Cocker's interview notes:

"Zara likes 'organic' products like Miranda. Miranda has her own organic skincare line and every Monday she uploads blogs ? which Zara reads every Monday (information on yoga, food and generally stuff she likes). She is Zara's favorite celebrity. She also follows Miranda on Twitter and wants to buy a pair of leather trousers as she saw them on Miranda Kerr. Zara "wouldn't buy day stuff from Kate Middleton" ? she buys day stuff using Miranda Kerr and Blake Lively. "Miranda Kerr always has her hair to one side, she never has it on both sides and I always try and do that."

The interviews with all subjects revealed nine types of relationships young adults develop with celebrities. These relationships fit within three general categories ? everyday, inspirational and negative. Everyday relationships include "best friendship," "compartmentalized" and "childhood friendship." The inspirational category includes "aspirational," "admiration" and "illusory" relationships. Negative celebrity relationships include "antagonistic," "not for me" and "guilty pleasures," all of which connote, as the name suggests, some kind of negative quality that motivates the consumer.

"We see consumers as active producers of symbols and signs of consumption," Cocker said. "They are creating meaning rather than just waiting around to be told what is important in terms of constructing their identity."

The researchers' findings have been accepted for publication in the Journal of Marketing Management.

The study focused on British culture and celebrities. Cocker said she wants to conduct a similar, but larger study of U.S. celebrities.

Provided by University of Arkansas

Source: http://phys.org/news/2012-11-consumers-complex-relationships-celebrities-identity.html

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Real Estate Predictions for 2013 From Industry Experts | Multi ...

Nov. 30, 2012

Randy Fifield,?vice chairman of Fifield Companies

By Jessica Fiur, News Editor

Chicago?With 2012 coming to a close, experts are predicting how the real estate industry will fare in 2013.

The economy is recovering from the recession, which will lead to more housing starts. According to the Commerce Department, there has been the most new construction of homes in October 2012 since July 2008.

?Like other buildings, we?re seeing a few things that have allowed us some cautious optimism going forward,? says Jeff Benach, co-principal of Lexington Homes. ?Due to signs of improvement in the market, we?ve been able to back off on incentives and discounting at most communities. Also, buyers are expecting as many promotions or deals as in the past few years. We opened four communities in 2012 and hope to open two or three more in 2013. We?re ready to be running on all cylinders again.?

Additionally, custom-home activity, which has slowed recently, will begin to see a pick up, and owners will look toward luxury finishes.

?Most of our homebuyers are in their 40s with young kids,? says Dimitri Nassis, CEO of Tandem Architecture and Construction. ?This group is willing to take the plunge and isn?t going to settle. They want their dream home and are turning to customer builders to get it.?

However, while home sales are expected to gain more traction, industry insiders still believe that the multifamily industry will remain strong.

?Renting is a trend that is here to stay,? Randy Fifield, vice chairman of Fifield Companies, tells MHN.

T.J. Rubin, managing broker of Fulton Grace Realty, echoes this sentiment.

?There?s still a level of skepticism among many people who, on paper, are excellent candidates to buy,? he says. ?Those who normally would be buying are willing to spend $2,000 to $3,000 a month to get a great rental, which is putting luxury rental units in very high demand. Luckily, there are a lot of high-end condos available to rent, as owners are holding onto them and renting them out instead of selling at a loss.?

Renting will continue to appeal to Gen Y, but the other generations, who traditionally were homeowners, will turn more toward multifamily options.

?Empty nesters, baby boomers and even people looking for a pied-a-terre or second home are renting,? Fifield says. ?People want flexibility today, and they do not want to break the bank in order to live, work and play. Condos require a mortgage, taxes, assessments and a long-term commitment. Renting is simply less risk with more rewards.?While apartments are getting smaller, apartment amenities and the quality of the finishes are getting better.?

With that flexibility comes the ability to live alone. Developers are taking note of this desire, and with that, apartment sizes will skew smaller than in previous years.

?Renters? preferences have changed over the years regarding the size of their home,? Fifield says. ?Going forward, renters will continue to prefer smaller, sophisticated residences if they know that means they?ll have fabulous building amenities, like outdoor pool decks and multiple entertainment rooms.?

Industry experts are also predicting that design will be an important element in the upcoming year. The popularity of design websites such as Pinterest and Houzz, show no signs of waning.

And, while homeownership will start to appeal to more people than in the past several years, renting will remain ideal for those still afraid of the obligation that homeownership entails.

?[Renting] is a way of life that people truly enjoy,? Fifield says. ?You can rent dresses from Rent the Runway, cars by the hour with Zipcar and buy disposable cell phones. These services allow every person options and flexibility without making a commitment.?

Source: http://www.multihousingnews.com/news/real-estate-predictions-for-2013-from-industry-experts/1004066688.html

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Promotional Key Rings: The Key to Business Branding | iBrandStudio

Promotional products are one of the best tools for branding a business. Branded promotional key rings are useful, durable and they can be used every day. Here is a look at the basic things that contribute to a winning promotional product followed by the introduction of three innovative promotional key rings that will give the branding of any business a boost.

What Makes a Great Promotional Product

Promotional products include pens, bags, mugs, T-shirts and a variety of other innovative products. Before choosing a product to help brand a business here are five things to consider:

1. The clientele: Choose a product based upon the customer base and the type of business. For example, a computer repair store should consider promotional USB drives.
2. Durability: Choose a product that is durable and not necessarily seasonal. A good promotional product should survive regular wear and tear and last for at least 6 months.
3. Usefulness: A good promotional product is one that consumers will use every day. Utilitarian products have a much longer promotional lifespan than non-utilitarian items.
4. Migration: A good promotional product will migrate from current customers to new customers. The likelihood of this happening is increased when the item is not too personal. Small items that are perceived to have value but are not expensive migrate easily.
5. Broadcast value: Some promotional items like T-shirts and green shopping bags have little chance of migrating from one consumer to another but they can be very useful as vehicles for display advertisement.

Key Rings: Advertising Locked In for Years

Promotional key rings have 3 of the 5 prerequisites that make a great promotional product. Promotional key rings are durable, they are useful and they migrate easily to family and friends who are given spare keys. Best of all promotional key rings lock advertising in for years. It is somewhat difficult to change keys on and off of a key ring and this means that once a key is attached to a key ring, the combination is likely to stay together for as long as the key is useful. In addition, even when a key is changed out often the key ring itself is retained and reused by the customer. This translates into the perfect place to put a business logo and advertising.

Keyrings come in many styles and price points. Metal key rings can be laser engraved giving any logo a classy professional look. Promotional key rings styles vary. There is the classy and traditional Morrissey key ring that is a simple silver rectangular. This projects an elegant business look. Then there are more specific keyring styles. For example, the Radello key ring is cleverly shaped like a golf club. The Radello is the perfect promotional item for any golf club, sporting goods store or personal coach. Another clever addition to key rings is the Mini Martello. The Mini Martello includes the useful items of a Swiss army knife making it both fun and utilitarian. In addition, the mini- hammer at the end of the Mini Martello makes this the perfect promotional item for any business related to construction, DIY, woodworking, crafting or home improvement.

Promotional Prices: Reasonable ROI

Successful business branding and marketing is all about Return on Investment (ROI). Many forms of business branding today are either very expensive (TV ads) or they are difficult to quantify (Facebook ads). Promotional products are exceptional because it is possible to actually see business branding at work. Simple follow up queries will tell a business the products are working at bringing in new customers. Seeing them used by current customers provides direct evidence that the items are being used and spreading the brand of the business.

Source: http://ibrandstudio.com/news/promotional-key-rings-business-branding

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